Agriculture under Climate Stress: Drivers and Policy Implications for Sustainable Productivity in Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Global warming is intensifying the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. This study aims to assess the relationship between non-climatic and climatic variables like the area under cultivation, fertilizer consumption, tractor and tube well, and average minimum and maximum temperature, wind, and precipitation, and the effects of these variables on agricultural productivity between 1991 and 2021, in Punjab Pakistan. In the first phase, we used the unit root tests to verify that the panel data was stationary. A Fixed Effects model was employed to identify the dynamic linkages of climatic and non-climatic factors with agricultural productivity. The outcomes of the study revealed that temperature and precipitation have a diverse impact on productivity. While the cultivated area and fertilizer consumption have a positive and significant impact on agricultural productivity. The empirical findings also showed that in comparison to non-climatic factors, climatic parameters—such as average maximum temperature—have a greater impact on productivity. Few recommendations are offered to deal with the effects of climate change based on the study's findings. Create such agriculture-specific adaptation plans for farmers who are resilient and capable of addressing climate change. Agriculture-related research and development ought to concentrate on key temperature-tolerant food crop varieties. Because of these tactics, the agriculture sector will be able to maintain long-term production and distribution efficiency.