Journal of Economic Impact

Determinants of Public Healthcare Investment: Cointegration and Causality Evidence from Pakistan

Adeel Saleem, Ghulam Sarwar, Jahanzaib Sultan, Zulfiqar Ali — Wed, 25 May 2022 00:00:00 +0000

A healthy population and human capital are essential for the emerging countries to achieve faster but more sustainable development, which can only be achieved by investing exclusively in health. The need to probe cause-and-effect relationship between the factors influencing the public health expenditures is the driving force behind this investigation. This study empirically investigates the cointegration and causal relationship between healthcare expenditures (HCE), income, healthcare infrastructure (HCI), and healthcare services (HCS) in Pakistan from 1974 to 2017. Lee-Strazicich and Clemente-Montanes-Reyes structural break unit root tests are employed in addition to standard unit root testing. The Bayer-Hank, Gregory-Hansen, and Hatmei-J cointegration tests consistently show that HCE, income, HCI, and HCS are cointegrated. The short-run Granger causality inferences show unidirectional causalities from HCE to HCI and HCS, from income to HCE, whereas bidirectional causality is observed between HCI and income and between HCI and HCS. Similarly, Long- run casualty results show unidirectional causality from income to HCE, from HCE, income, and HCS to HCI, and bidirectional causality between HCS and HCE. The findings suggest that the government may play an obligatory role in healthcare financing and must pay special attention to the equitable distribution of healthcare facilities, infrastructure, and services across Pakistan.

Nexus between Capital Flows and Economic Growth: An Evidence from South Asian Countries

Muhammad Aslam, Wajid Alim, Naeem Khan — Wed, 25 May 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This study aims to look at how capital inflows affect economic growth in South Asian countries. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Foreign Portfolio Equity Investment (FPEI), Foreign Debts (F.Debts), and Foreign Aids (F.Aids) are the study's independent variables, while Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDPG) is the dependent variable. Data has been collected from World development Indicator and Quandl from 1980 to 2018. To analyse the data Panel ARDL (PMG) model was utilised. Gross domestic savings, foreign direct investment, and foreign aid, all exhibit positive and strong long-term connections with GDP growth. Results also revealed that there are negative and strong long-run links between GDP, Foreign Portfolio Equity Investment, and Foreign Aids. There are negative and insignificant links between GDP growth, Foreign Direct Investment, and Foreign Aids. Results also reveal the positive and insignificant connections between GDP and GDS, FPEI, and foreign debt. The data imply that institutional improvement has an impact on capital inflows and economic growth. The study has policy implications for government and policymakers in the sense that capital flows and economic growth can improve the institutional environment.

Exploring the Inefficient Groundwater Use by Wheat Farmers: An Evidence from Sindh, Pakistan

Akbar Khan Khajjak, Tehmina Mangan, Habibullah Magsi, Aijaz Ali Khooharo — Thu, 02 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Pakistan's agricultural production is lower than that of many other developing countries. The agricultural community is nearly illiterate and uses old and conservative farming methods. These constraints impede the adoption and spread of new technologies at the agricultural level. The objective of this study was to calculate economic, allocative, technical, and water-use efficiency. In addition, the drivers of inefficiency for wheat fields in Benazirabad and Naushahro Feroz districts were measured. For the analysis, 390 farmers' data were used, 195 from each of the Chihu and Malwa minor canals. Data-envelopment-analysis, a non-parametric method, was utilized to determine the ratings of efficiency. The findings revealed that the mean economic, allocative, and technical efficiency scores of farms in the study region were 52%, 62%, and 83%. The average water-use efficiency score was found to be 52%. For the improvement in the present farming system, quantified results suggested the need for potential increase in wheat production by 17% with keeping the same level of inputs. Results further revealed that the production cost can be reduced by 48% by producing the same level of output leading to optimal allocation of resources. There is also a potential gap of improvement for water-use efficiency. Improvement in agriculture extension services, timely and proper supply of inputs and the creation of local level marketplaces at lower administrative entities can improve the efficiency scores of wheat farmers.

An Empirical Investigation into the Contribution of Foreign Aid to Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Exploring the Role of Democracy

Khawar Abbas, Muqarab Abbas, Faisal Azeem Abbassi — Wed, 08 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000

The significance of the study lies in the fact that this study will enable developing countries to find the benefits that they can get by establishing and strengthening democratic institutions in order to augment the positive effects of foreign aid for their economic growth. This study aims to explore the role of democracy in determining the effectiveness of foreign aid in economic growth. This study utilizes the growth rate of real GDP as an explained variable while foreign aid (FAID), official development assistance (ODA), Political regimes (DEM), gross capital formation (GCF), real financial consumption expenditures (GFCE), and Consumer price index (CPI) are used as explanatory variables. For this, the present study uses the panel data of selected developing countries for the period of 2006 to 2018. The results of the generalized method of moments (GMM) indicate that foreign aid is not beneficial for the economic growth of selected countries whereas, democracy is favorable for higher economic growth. When foreign aid is granted to democratic countries, it accelerates economic growth. Hence, the policy makers of donors’ institutions should consider the democratic attributes to make decision about foreign aid towards developing countries.

Rural Poverty and Its Dimensions: Evidences from North-West Region of Pakistan

Wed, 15 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This paper analyzed the cause of poverty in rural areas of North- Western region of Pakistan. Poverty in rural areas of Pakistan is still considered as big dilemma and absolute hurdle to the development, by considering this issue this study was carried out in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province opting mix method approach. One (01) district from each of the four (04) agro-ecological regions of the province was selected purposively. The targeted study districts were Peshawar, Mansehra, D.I. Khan and Swat. From each study district, 100 respondents (rural residents) were randomly selected and personally interviewed. Total sample size of the study was 400 respondents for the collection of quantitative data. Additionally, focus group discussion meetings were also conducted for collecting qualitative data. A pretested interview schedule was used for the collection of quantitative date while an interview guide was used for qualitative data. Descriptive analytical techniques were used for quantitative data and content analysis method was used for qualitative data. Findings conclude that only 13.12% of the total area is cultivated by majority the rural population of the province. Financial constraints, derivation of basic needs, homelessness and facing discrimination were regarded as the attributes of poverty by the respondents. Limited access to income generation opportunities was regarded as the root cause of poverty with mean value of 4.86/5.00 followed by limited access to education (4.76/5.00). Lack of access to basic livelihood necessities (mean value=4.88) and basic human right (mean value=4.82) were regarded as most popular materialistic and non-materialistic impacts respectively of poverty in rural areas of the province. This deprivation in the province causes poverty and leads to the involvement in illegal and unethical activities by the rural residents specifically. Ending their deprivation in actual and eroding the sense of deprivation is the only solution that can be achieved by the implementation of sustainable development goals (SDGs) without any discrimination.

The Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports Growth of the Selected Developed Economies

Mahnaz Muhammad Ali, Muhammad Muzammil, Ayesha Umar — Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Exchange rate volatility plays a pivotal role in shaping the trade policy of a country. This paper utilized a yearly time series and panel data to explore the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export growth of the selected developed countries (Poland, Sweden, UK, Italy, Germany, France, Denmark, Austria, and Belgium) between 1980-2020. Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and individual cointegration techniques were applied to evaluate the impact of exchange rate volatility on export growth in two-time horizons, i.e., short-run and long-run. Results confirmed that, in the long run, exchange rate volatility was cointegrated with export growth. The study further validated that in case of panel data, in the short run, exchange rate volatility suppresses export growth. At the same time, in the long run, it aids in accelerating export growth. At disintegrate level, in the short run, results were relatively insignificant except for Sweden and Italy, which had shown negative and significant association with export growth. In contrast, the long-run analysis revealed a significant positive impact of exchange rate volatility in most of the cases. Also, in case of panel data, if estimated elasticity is negative, then real depreciation could lower the real exchange rate and widen the export base. As exchange rate volatility could promote or hinder export activity, therefore, it is important for policymakers to consider exchange rate volatility while formulating the trade policy of the country. Also, stable and sustainable management of the exchange rate would bring stability and promotes long-term growth in an economy.

An Implication of Impulse Response Function in the Perspective of Green Revolution, Credit Disbursement, and Fossil Fuel Utilization in Pakistan

Saeed Ur Rahman, Zia Ur Rahman, Aabera Atta, Faiza Afzal — Sun, 17 Jul 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Recently, credit disbursement and fossil fuel utilization increased to enhance wheat production so peasants could benefit from the green revolution. To look at the impact of credit disbursement, fossil fuel utilization, and the determinants of the green revolution were arranged to investigate the association among them. For this purpose, the study employed the time series in the perspective of Pakistan, spanning 1971 to 2019. Modern econometrics techniques like Johansen cointegration, vector autoregressive and impulse response function were employed along with a number of diagnostics tests. Evidence of the Johansen model shows significant long-run cointegration among the green revolution, credit disbursement, fossil fuel, and total wheat production. The Johansen test elaborates that 1% increase in credit disbursement and fossil fuel increases the total wheat production by 0.57% and 0.04 % respectively. Moreover, the determinants of the green revolution also positively affect wheat production. While the coefficient, residual and stability diagnostic tests are in favor of the study. The findings of the impulse response function state that all the concerned variables positively affect the total wheat production in the coming years. The study suggested that the government and private sector should invest in research and development to introduce the organic chemical and forming to avoid soil fertility and environmental degradation.

Determinants of Domestic Bank Credit to Private sectors in Bangladesh: An Empirical Investigation

Didarul Islam — Tue, 30 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This article examines the key determinants of domestic bank credit the private sectors receive in Bangladesh by using annual time series data over the period from 1974 to 2018. The ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) model has been applied to identify the variables that contribute to the changes in domestic credit to private sectors from banks over time in Bangladesh. Empirical results reveal that broad money (M2), gross domestic product (GDP), real interest rate (RI), trade openness (TO), gross capital formation (GCF), and exchange rate (ER) have a significant impact on the amount of credit flowing to the private sectors from banks in Bangladesh, particularly in the long run. The findings also confirm that the long run relationship among the relevant variables is robust and stable. Any disequilibrium found in the short run seems to be eliminated with a speed of 40.96% per year. The findings of the research suggest that a stable growth of money supply, an increase in real interest rate, sustainable growth in GDP, and high degree trade openness are crucial for the growth of bank credit to private sectors. Gross capital formation and local currency depreciation, on the other hand, negatively influence bank loans to the private sector in Bangladesh. The significance of the study lies in the fact that it paves the way for a better understanding of the functionality of domestic bank credit flow in Bangladesh. The policy implications of the findings suggest that authorities pay special attention to stable money supply growth, expansionary monetary policy, and trade liberalization to strengthen the financial market in Bangladesh.

Financial Risk Management and Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Nasir Munir, Sadaf Shahab, Muhammad Tariq Mehmood — Tue, 30 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Monetary policy plays a vital role in achieving development for any country. This study attempts to analyze the impact of the monetary transmission mechanism on unhedged interest rate exposure in the case of Pakistan. The study used time series data from 1980 to 2020 and applied the ARDL model to check the short-run and long run association between all the variables. First, URE (Unhedged interest rate exposure) was calculated and then estimated the factors affecting it. The study also used the perfect foresight model for addressing household behavior. The outcomes indicated that all exchange rates, interest rates, and money supply positively impact unhedged interest rate exposure, and they are significant both in the short and long-run. The interest rate substantially affects unhedged rate exposure more than the money supply. Development expenditures and money supply are negatively associated with income inequality; unhedged interest rate exposure is positively associated with income inequality.

Qualitative Analysis of Maqasid Al Shariah Based Model in Islamic Banks: A Way Forward

Muhammad Nadeem Khalil, Talat Hussain — Tue, 30 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Islamic banking has made tremendous growth in the last few years all over the world. However, people are not satisfied with the performance of Islamic banks with respect to their contribution to alleviating poverty and equitable distribution of wealth, achievement of socio-economic welfare, and human well-being. Therefore there is a need to critically review the current practices of Islamic banks and assess the need to develop a model of Islamic banking in the light of Maqasid al Shariah which can contribute to socio-economic welfare and human well-being of people by eradicating poverty and concentration of wealth. For this purpose, this study employs exploratory, qualitative research in which semi-structured face-to-face interviews are conducted with renowned Shariah scholars, Shariah Supervisory Board (SBB) members of Islamic banks, and renowned academicians. The grounded theory research approach is used in this study using NVIVO data analysis software. The results of this study show there is a dire need to develop a model of Islamic banking in the light of Maqasid al Shariah for the socio-economic welfare of the people. Both Islamic and conventional banks are in a capitalistic paradigm. Hurdles created due to a capitalistic mindset should be removed. Islamic banks could not bring a visible change in society with respect to the alleviation of poverty and the social well-being of the people. A new model focusing on achieving Maqasid al Shariah for the welfare of not only Muslims but all human beings on earth is the need of the hour in which socio-economic welfare should be given the primary role in the current practices of Islamic banks.

Population Growth and Its Impact on Economic Development in Nagaland: An Empirical Analysis

Chubakumzuk Jamir — Tue, 30 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This study empirically tests the impact of population growth on economic development of Nagaland for the period of 1981-2011. Demographic transition helps in creating a policy environment that takes maximum advantage of the demographic potential of the State. The regression technique was incorporated to investigate the relationship between population growth and economic development. The findings indicate that the labour forces were shifting from the low-productivity agriculture sector to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. The domino effect of the study indicates that population growth has positively and significantly contributed to economic development but is negatively affected by the unemployment rate. Now although on the one hand, if it increases growth but on the other hand, it creates a problem of unemployment and leads to a decline in net state domestic product and per-capita income. The government is advised to utilize this additional workforce efficiently as a policy tool to achieve a high and desired level of growth.

Drivers Influencing Consumers’ Buying Intentions towards Frozen Chicken Products: A Case of South Punjab

Tue, 30 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000

In the scenario of Pakistan, the demand for frozen chicken products such as nuggets, a variety of chicken, drumsticks, burger patties, and chicken candies has increased with the passage of time. Rise in consumer income, change in the demographics and lifestyles, and changes in the preferences of the people because of the awareness as well as new technologies. The present research was carried out in the city of Multan. The city selected for research, as it is a densely populated city in southern Punjab. Multan is also the fourth largest city in Pakistan, and it is a purposive study-targeting customers related to value-added chicken products, A representative sample of consumers was drawn. A sample of 200 customers was interviewed by employing a convenient sampling technique. The researcher used the pre-tested items for the questionnaire of the present study for the collection of data from participants selected through personal interviews. Data collected from 1-20 April 2021. The consumer preferences for frozen chicken products were estimated by using the binary logistic regression technique. According to the results, all independent variables (qualification of consumers, consumer family size, income of consumer, hygienic factor, taste, appearance, availability, location, and season) are influencing the consumption of frozen chicken products significantly except the availability of frozen chicken products in the study area. The consumers highlighted various problems such as lack of advertisement, high prices, and lack of awareness, location, and availability of frozen chicken products in the study area. Advertisement campaigns should initiate to enhance the awareness and usage of frozen chicken products by the companies in the study area.

Impact of Seeding Techniques and Planting Density on Productivity and Profitability of Oat Cultivar (Supergreen Oat)

Tue, 30 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Less fodder availability in the Rabi season causes a dramatic reduction in Pakistan's livestock sector's production capacity. In this regard, a field investigation was carried out for two years (2016-17 to 2017-18) at the Research Area of Fodder Research Sargodha to assess the most suitable seeding techniques and planting density for the new oat cultivar “Supergreen Oat”. Three seeding techniques were tested, i.e., 15 cm, 30 cm, and 45 cm apart rows, and three planting densities of 67.5 kg ha-1, 80 kg ha-1, and 92.5 kg ha-1. The experiment was sown during the first week of November each year by using seed rate according to treatments of new oat cultivars “Supergreen Oat”. Data regarding average forage yield, agronomic yield attributes, and economics of both variable factors, row spacing, and seeding rate were recorded. Perspective indicated statistically significant differences among the treatments. Row spacing of 15 cm apart lines produced the maximum forage yield (116.53 t ha^-1) as compared to other sowing techniques, and the seeding rate (80 kg ha^-1) performed better (118.58 t ha^-1) as compared to both seeding rates. The interactive effect of both variable factors revealed that the seeding rate 80 kg ha^-1 (SR₂) performed better when sown at 15 cm (RS₁) apart line to line (127.26 t ha^-1) and also showed a maximum benefit cost ratio (2.85).

Factors Influencing Water Saving Measures and Water-Use Efficiency of Wheat Growers in Sindh, Pakistan

Akbar Khan Khajjak, Tehmina Mangan — Tue, 30 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000

As the food supplies will have to be increased according to the growing population, water demand will be on the rise in the future. Therefore, improved water consumption patterns must be followed to match future food demands. The paper analyzes the farmer’s adoption of improved irrigation technology to avoid excessive irrigation water use in cultivating crops. In addition, this paper also investigated the factors influencing the water-use efficiency of the farmers. A total of 390 farmers who grew wheat crops were selected from the Naushahro Feroz and Benazirabad districts of Sindh, Pakistan. Socio-economic variables and efficiency scores of the respondents were taken as variables, and both binomial logistic and Tobit regression models were applied. Results indicated that household head’s experience and formal education have a positive and significant impact on their decision to adopt improved irrigation and their efficiency scores. The elasticities reveal that a 1 % increase in experience of farming possesses the probability of lining the water courses by 23%. Whereas, with the change of 1% in the formal education of respondents, the tendency to laser land leveling changed by 0.1%. In comparison, the distance of the farm from the canal and the area of the farm bears a negative impact on water conserving measures opted by them and their water-use efficiency scores. It was found that proper lining of the water courses, usage of drought tolerant varieties of crops, irrigation technology adoption, and laser land leveling were the measures taken to avoid the excessive use of irrigation water. These measures were found to significantly impact the water-use efficiency scores of sampled farmers. These findings might be helpful for researchers and policymakers to realize such factors influencing the adoption of farmers and their farm efficiency.

Impact of Financial Inclusion on Financial Well-Being: Moderating Effect of Orientation towards Finance

Sana Rashid, Muhammad Bilal, Abid Hussain, Manzoor Ahmad Shah — Tue, 30 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000

The present study examines the impact of women’s orientation toward finance on their financial well-being. Along this, research also considers the financial capability of working women in the Lahore district's educational sector. For this purpose, the current study developed insight into the effect of financial inclusion on the financial well-being. In addition, the study is testing the mediation of financial capability and conditional process modeling of orientation towards finance of the working women as a teaching staff working in the different educational institutes such as schools, colleges and universities of Lahore. The research study adopted a quantitative strategy with using a deductive approach. The researcher used a self-administered questionnaire to collect the data from the research study's respondents. Eight hundred questionnaires were distributed among the respondents, and 600 were returned from the participants, out of which 550 questionnaires were fully filled. For analyzing data collected from respondents in the form of their responses, SPSS and AMOS have been used. The study's results indicated that the financially included working women have a high level of financial well-being. The findings also revealed that financial capability mediates the relationship between financial inclusion and financial well-being. The research outcomes showed that the working women’s orientation toward finance has a moderated mediation mechanism among financial inclusion and financial well-being and financial inclusion and financial capability. The prevailing study is significant for the women belonging to different working sectors as well as different levels of hierarchy. The study is also important for the policymakers and the governing bodies to focus on enhancing women's financial well-being by making sure that they are financially included.