Environmental and Economic Impacts of Carbon Emissions in Potato and Maize Production Systems: Evidence from Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change affects agriculture adversely, and at the same time, agriculture is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. In the District Okara of Pakistan, an important potato and maize-producing area, it stands 4th in potato and 3rd in maize production in the country. Increased CO2 levels cause an imbalance in greenhouse gases, which adversely affects crop cycles and increases pests. Climate-related pest pressure has resulted in crop losses of 28-45%. This study aims to estimate the carbon footprint of potato and maize production, analyze their profitability and terms of trade, and identify the key factors influencing carbon emissions and farm profitability. Primary data were collected from a sample of 240 respondents, comprising 120 potato producers and 120 maize producers from District Okara. Profitability was assessed using a net benefit approach, calculated as total revenue minus production costs, while terms of trade were estimated as the ratio of output value to input costs. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis was employed to estimate carbon emissions associated with major production inputs. The results indicate that the average carbon footprint for large, medium, and small farmers was 7.50 m³, 6.90 m³, and 6.24 m³, respectively. Fertilizers, pesticides, diesel, and electricity were identified as the major sources of carbon emissions, contributing approximately 613.22 kg CO?-equivalent per annum. Water footprint analysis revealed substantial variation among farm sizes, with large, medium, and small farmers recording water footprints of 1460.23 mm, 69.2 mm, and 2807.1 mm, respectively. Despite a high dependence on external and off-season inputs, potato and maize production remained economically viable, with an average market price of approximately PKR 2,800* per mound. These results emphasize the importance of efficient use of inputs and emissions reduction to enhance the sustainability of agricultural systems in Pakistan.