SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT AND MIGRATION DUE TO WATER SHORTAGE IN DISTRICT BADIN SINDH PROVINCE OF PAKISTAN

Article history Received: January 01, 2021 Revised: March 25, 2021 Accepted: March 26, 2021 The agriculture sector is the backbone of Pakistan's economy. It contributes 18.9 percent to the national GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and 43.5 percent to the national labor force. The term ‘water scarcity’ depicts, the water demand that could not fulfill the human need. Some of the factors that cause water scarcity include dry spells, shortage of irrigation water, climate change, drought, excessive storage, and weather extremes. Another critical factor that causes scarcity is excessive population growth. Water stress directly impacts human migration because it affects the human lives and socio-economic conditions of the migrants. This study aimed to examine the impact of water shortage on the socioeconomic condition of growers in the study area. To examine how water scarcity is behind the migration and to analyze the impact of water shortage on agricultural production. The analysis of the data reveals that migration occurs due to the shortage of water in the last five years of Taluka, Tando Bago. The current scenario of the study depicted that Tando Bago is suffering from the worst condition of water shortage and about 60 percent of farmers were not in a condition to use the freshwater resources. According to the farmer's perception (88%), the quality of underground water is seen to be low as compared to taluka Matli. It is a big threat to the agriculture sector in terms of productivity, soil degradation, and fallow land. The study further reveals that per acre yield of crops is low that signifies the impact of water shortage on agriculture production. In taluka Matli, the net return of wheat crop and per-acre value of land (RS: 795,858), is high as compared to Tando Bago (RS: 225,428). The results of the study favours’ the significant impact of water shortage on socioeconomic and migration of the people in district Badin.


INTRODUCTION
The agriculture sector is the backbone of Pakistan's economy. It contributes 18.9 percent to the national GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and 43.5 percent to the national labor force (GoP, 2020). Water is a vital natural resource for human beings to survive, to maintain biodiversity, and economic development (Walter et al., 2011). Water is an essential need for human beings as well as development (Guppy and Anderson, 2017). Water scares is a global problem (Lenzen et al., 2013). Water shortages create a threat for society to survive and it is important for socioeconomic conditions (Veldkamp et al., 2015). It provides the basic need of life; without water there is no life. Water provides the foundation stone for livelihood and cultural progress (Adams et al., 2009).
Water scarcity directly affect human live and societies and their impact on human migration (Black et al., 2011). The term 'water scarcity' depicts the water demand that could not fulfil the human need. Some of the factors that cause water scarcity include dry spells, shortage of irrigation water, climate change, drought, excessive storage, and weather extremes. Another important factor that causes scarcity is excessive population growth. Water stress directly impacts human migration because it affects the human lives and socio-economic conditions of the migrants. There are three main causes of water shortage which are rapidly growing population, unproductive agriculture sector, and lack of management for the development side (Madani, 2014). In some previous years, the water demand is going high day by day because population, urbanization, and industries are rapidly increased. According to social experts, water is directly interlinked with peoples' lives in the shape of living standards and their needs (Yin et al., 2017). Pakistan has been shifted to water-stressed and faces inadequate water scarcity because it is a limited resource. Mismanagement of water distribution is a big issue and it directly hits water scarcity (Khair et al., 2011). Rural people directly depend on the agriculture sector. This sector is directly interlinked with the rural people and the water resource is the life of the agriculture sector without water, it is nothing. Water scarcity probably rises, which affects the agriculture sector and the farming community, as well as their health issues (Grewal and Ahmed, 2011). Most people living in rural areas are unaware of the quality of water for agriculture and their health. Water scarcity and polluted drinking water cause a lot of waterborne diseases. Rahman et al. (2018) said that still, no epidemiological facts of alternate drinking water, arsenic poisoning, and wellbeing involvements are present to the individuals in danger, unfortunately. Guglielmi (2017) indicates that in Pakistan, around 60 million individuals are at risk of being affected by high concentrations of arsenic in drinking water; the biggest mass poisoning in history. Arsenic poisoning can be the reason for restrictive pulmonary disease, cancer, diabetes mellitus, skin lesions, gangrene, cardiovascular problems, neurological impairments, and problems in immunity, liver, kidney, bladder and endocrine glands and as well as socioeconomic risks. Nabi et al. (2018) mentioned that local biodiversity, ecology, and deprived water supply would probably disturb agriculture destructively. The natural world has even now arrived in the red zone and can perhaps go into a humanitarian disaster with the harm of large-scale area migration of individuals because of drought-like conditions. Some recommendations have been suggested that it could conceivably provide the benefit to the people of Pakistan to get rid of pollution, shortage of water and to preserve an ecology, save local biodiversity, and recover agriculture (Shaikh, 2018).

Inefficient Use of Irrigation Water
International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that Pakistan has been ranked third among the countries which are bearing a highly severe shortage of water. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) declared in May 2018 that by 2025, the availability of water would be very short and not clean in the country (Shukla, 2018). The pollution in water is responsible for around 30 percent of deaths and 80 percent of all diseases (Daud et al., 2017). World Health Organization (WHO) stated that waterborne diarrheal illnesses are blameable for approximately 2 million deaths yearly globally, with the top happening in children under five years (WHO, 2018). Sound National Water Policy: National water policy is required to improve and save their water resource, because of environmental threats faced by every country, and Pakistan is one of them. Switch to Bottled Drinking Water: It is a luxury choice, those people have the affordability power to drink it (Guglielmi, 2017). Bacteria and other germs are consumed in water that's why people avoid open water and prefer to purchase safe drink water (Sahoutara, 2017). Building Dams: This time, Pakistan needs large as well as small dams because without a dam's water storage facility is not possible and it is beneficial for ecology. More dams support an ecosystem, dams are favorable to any country because there are many benefits, like electricity, agriculture, fisheries, and the environment. Biodiversity is a significant factor for an environment; without it, life could not survive happily (Qureshi and Akıntug, 2014). Reforestation: Pakistan misses almost 2.1 percent of its forestry annually. If this proportion remains the same, Pakistan will be without forests within the coming 50 years (Randhawa, 2017). Artificial Rain: Pakistan needs a rainmaking system throughout the country, likewise China. This will probably benefit us in resolving the difficulties of shielding the ecology, shortage of water, saving biodiversity, and reducing the natural calamity, China is emerging as the world's biggest weather-operating system encompassing tens of thousands of fuel-burning compartments. This scheme will raise rainfall over a range of almost 1.6 million square kilometers (Chen, 2018).
Specific objectives of the study are as under: to examine the impact of water shortage on the socioeconomic condition of growers in the study area, to examine how water scarcity is behind the migration in the study area, to analyze the impact of water shortage on agricultural production. Natural scarce resources are threatened by increasing population and growing urbanization. Water plays a major role in environmental migration. The current migration due to water in the Middle East and Africa was identified. Specifically, water is the main driving force for migration and a geographical region, it was examined by a potential statistical correlation. Nawrotzki et al. (2017) states that in agriculture dominated area; there is a lack of knowledge to alleviate stress on migration-the speedy rural-urban migration can be reduced by making a public investment in the agriculture sector. Paulsen (2015) examines that fresh water and migration are both interlinked with each other and consider them as a global issue of the twenty-first century. The impact and potential linkages are aimed to explore one after other. Veldkamp et al. (2015) observed the worst risk for society is the shortage of water. However, the world is suffered from socioeconomic and changing hydroclimatic conditions day by day which can cause problems of scarcity of water in society. Hermans (2012) argues that water plays an additional role in the migration of people in a society. The current migration pattern is frequently influenced by a direct correlation in the hydrological factor. The most challenging for migrating decisions is the push and pull factor. Walter et al. (2011) Said that water is life for the whole nature its worth is always countable in every aspect of life as economic development, biodiversity, and a way forward for sustainable development. Water policy is taking an important consideration as becoming a water trade and a globally scarce resource. Khair et al. (2011) said that water shortage due to poor management and maintenance; Pakistan is underneath faster depletion of water and contributing much more to a crisis of water scarcity. Hamdy et al. (2003) concluded that water availability and agriculture production is directly proportional to each other in terms of rainfall as well as irrigation and also known to be the largest global water user.

METHODOLOGY Study Area
The Badin is the coastal district and has a strategic location in Sindh province. This district is full of natural resources. According to the population census 2017, the area of district Badin is 6,726 square kilometers, and the total population is 1,804,516. From all five talukas, two were selected namely Matli and Tando Bago.

Sampling Procedure and Data Collection
The questionnaire was developed with the help of a literature review and research supervisor, it is pretested in the field. Primary data was collected through a random sampling technique. The total sample size was 120 respondents, 60 respondents from each taluka. Furthermore, 24 villages were selected 12 villages from each taluka for data collection.

Data Analysis
Data were arranged in the coding system in SPSS, analyzed likewise mean, maximum, minimum, percentage, net income, and cost-benefit ratio.

Percentage:
Calculated under this formula: = * 100 f = number of respondents n = total number of respondents

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
In this research section, the results of different variables are described that are interlinked with the objective of the study, like the impact of water shortage on socioeconomics condition, agriculture production, and migration. Those were analyzed and identified. Table 1 shows the impact of water shortage on socioeconomic conditions during the last ten years. The data reveals that the socioeconomic conditions are not looking better since the last decade due to water shortages. Regarding the house structure, most people were living in mud houses and some of them were living in katcha house and very few were living in semi pacca and pacca houses. The source of drinking water was not favorable because the quality of underground water was not efficient that's why they do not use it; they are using water channels and other sources for drinking purposes. Especially in the Kharif season, water is concise. According to the farmer's perception, the monthly income is low and the livestock production was high because most people depend on the livestock sector.

Impact of Water Shortage on Socioeconomics Conditions
However, it is directly interlinked with the agriculture sector. Most of the respondents responded that since last decades they faced a lot of agriculture heavy losses due to water shortage and untimely rainfalls.  occur. Malnutrition problem is a very serious issue seen in the study area, most of the peoples (80.83%) suffering from it. This is a food and malnutrition issue, it can be occurred due to not using plenty of food. Most peoples have not a proper growth rate because of a very low nutrition problem.  100.0 Table 4 shows the age category of respondents available in the study area. The majority of the respondent category was 46 to 60 years, while some were 31 to 60 years. Furthermore, the third category was 21-33 years of the farmers. Only 1 percent of the respondents were 61 and above years age in the study area.  Table 5 indicates the respondent's category according to their education, farming experience, and working occupation. The results depicted the educational level of the respondent in the study area, the majority of the respondents has primary education. While others were illiterate, matriculation, middle and college level respondent that shows the percentage 28, 19, 15 and 10% respectively. The respondents' farming experience in the study area shows that the majority of farmers' knowledge was 16-30 years because it is their ancestral property and cultivating it since childhood. The other category has 1-15 years of farming experience. The third category of the table is the occupation of the respondent that is divided into three categories. The majority of the respondents (60%) were interlinked with the agriculture sector, some (28%) of respondents have government jobs and 11 percent had private jobs in the study area.  Table 6 shows the perception of the respondent regarding the currents and past status of educational level. The majority of the respondents (43.3%) indicate that the education level was delighted in the last decade. Some of the respondents (37.5%) mentioned that the education level was satisfied due to increased purchasing power in the people and currently (19.1%) respondent indicates that education is just satisfactory because the expenditure is very high. Income is low that causes hurdle in getting an education and mostly, poor people cannot afford it. Table 7 discusses the scarcity of water and migration in the study area. Water scarcity is a common problem in Pakistan. The majority of the respondents (93%) were facing water shortage problems. The majority of the farmers (60%) responded that the migration has occurred due to a shortage of water. Agriculture productivity is going to be low day by day in the study area due to water scarcity, while 85 percent of the respondent were agreed to agriculture productivity going down. Most of the respondents said that underground water quality is deficient, so they do not use it. The value of agricultural land is decreasing day by day. About 65 percent of respondents were agreed to prices are going down and 20 percent said that they don't know about the costs of agricultural land in the study area.  Any relative home migrates from here 0.12 1.23 Table 8 shows the data on the water shortage problem. It is a severe issue in Pakistan, but all over the world, it is faced. For the last 13 years, the water shortage problem has occurred in the Tando Bago. Averagely 2.24 homes had migrated from the villages. In the answer against any relative have migrated from here to any other city of place, respondents answered that, averagely, 1.23 homes were migrated in the study area. Furthermore, Matli taluka's condition was good as compared to the Tando Bago.  Table 9 shows the price of land per acre is compared with the last few years in the study area. The current price of Matli was 795,858 rupees, while in Tando Bago was 225,428 rupees and five years ago, the same land was sold in 295,987 rupees per acre. If it is looked at two decades ago, the land price was 339,928 rupeesthe taluka Matli as good as compared to Tando Bago because Matli taluka rarely faces water shortage problems. Table 10 shows the comparison between the current and the last decade migration status. During the last decade, 0.21 percent of homes were migrated and in the previous half-decade, 1.01 homes were migrated, but currently, the migration ratio is very high as compared to the past. The current ratio of migrants is 2.3 percent. Table 11 shows the purposes of migration; there were three primary purposes educations of children, duty, and daily wages in the study area. For education purposes, nearby town migration was 68 percent and nearby city migration was 30 percent. While meager rate migrates were out of the country for education purpose (2%). For job purposes, nearby town migration was 75 percent, the nearby city was 22 percent, and the out of the country is 2 percent. For daily wages, the nearby town migrants were 79 percent, nearby city migrants were 19 percent and 2 percent was out of the country. Table 12 indicates the migration-related issues in the study area. In the last ten years migration occurs due to a shortage of water, about 23 percent, the education purpose and conflict is almost 93 and 4 percent respectively. In the last five years, the migration occurs due to a shortage of water is 57 percent, the education purpose and conflict are 51 and 12 percent respectively. Furthermore, the current scenario of migration depicts, 81 percent due to shortage of water, education purpose and conflicts is 28 and 11 percent respectively in the study area.   Table 14 clearly shows the average status of fallow land in the study area. In the last ten years, fallow land was 1.24 acres and in the previous five years, it was 2.34 acres. While currently, 3.01 acres was fallow land in the study area. Table 15 indicates the perception of farmers regarding agriculture production in the study area. Sixty-five percent of farmers mentioned that agriculture production was good in the last ten years, while 19 percent mention that in the previous five years, agriculture production was just satisfactory. Even more current 10 percent of farmers mentioned that their agriculture production was not very adequate. Most of the farmers said surface water is a severe issue because the shortage of water impacts livelihood and livestock as well as in the study area.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The current study aims to explore and status of migration due to water shortage in district Badin. Most people migrate due to water shortage in the last five years from taluka Tando Bago. Currently, it is suffering from the worst condition of water shortage. About 60 percent of farmers were seriously facing this issue. The underground quality of water in taluka Tando Bago is in an alarming situation. The result revealed that 88 percent of farmers argued that water's underground quality is not very satisfactory in the study area. The agriculture productivity is very low and most farmers leave their lands fallow because of water-scarce. In taluka Matli, the net return of wheat crop and per-acre value of land (RS: 795,858), is high compared to Tando Bago (RS: 225,428). The study results favour the significant impact of water shortage on the socioeconomic and migration of the people in district Badin. It is recommended that proper policy measures should be taken to improve the availability of water in taluka Tando Bago. The quality of groundwater is not good, and therefore mostly farmers leave their lands fallow. It is suggested that detailed studies should be undertaken to know the exact causes and solutions of declining water quality.